538 Presidential Model 2024. Maine has become the latest state to join the national popular vote interstate compact —potentially making the 2024 presidential race their last as electoral college. The 538 predictive model for the 2024 presidential election shows president biden more likely to win than former president trump — biden's best odds since may.
Updating average for each candidate in 2024 presidential polls, accounting for each poll’s recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. 1 the model is the direct descendant of the f/k/a fivethirtyeight.